Tuesday, January 19, 2010

2010 TMT Predictions - Whats the difference between T, M and T anyway?

As you know I work for Deloitte. Today Deloitte published the 2010 Technology, Media and Telecommunications predictions. Personally I found them fascinating. You can find them at http://short.ie/ie377t.

The Predictions
I particularly like the Moore's Law, Net Tablet and linear TV schedule predictions.

Top Technology Predictions include:
1. IT procurement stands on its head
2. From grey to green: technology reinvents cement
3. Smaller than a netbook, bigger than a smartphone: net tablets arrive
4. Moore's Law is alive and well in 2010
5. Cloud computing: more than hype, but less than hyper
6. Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC
7. CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows

Top Media Predictions include:
1. Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme
2. Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments
3. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues
4. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves
5. Music as a service rises up the charts
6. TV and the Web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen
7. Video-on-demand takes off - thanks to the vending machine
8. One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV

Top Telecommunications Predictions include:
1. The smartphone becomes a search-phone
2. Mobile VoIP becomes a social network
3. Widening the bottleneck. Telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network
4. Paying for what we eat. Carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy
5. Nixing the nines
6. Contract 2.0: long-term solutions shorten and multiply
7. The line goes leaner. And greener 8. Reliability redefined and reassessed

My Thoughts

I was involved in putting together Deloitte Ireland's point of view on the results and so spent quite some time going through each prediction for each of the TMT areas. What struck me was the blurring of the lines between the predictions. Almost without exception the media and telecommunications predictions were reliant on technology. For example the telecommunications predictions talked about the SmartPhone becoming a search phone and mobile VOIP becoming a social network. While these are certainly telecommunications predictions, I don't think many of us would have been surprised to see them in the technology predictions either. Similarly on the media side there was a debate around eReaders, Music As a Service and TV v xPlayer services. Consequently, when debating which of our clients to send them to I argued that all our CIO and Senior IT contacts would be interested in all three.

I wonder next year will we have just one set of predictions?

2 comments:

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